One Third of Online Users Will Own Tablets by 2015
Dozens of tablet computers are expected to launch this week at the Consumer Electronics Show (CES) in Las Vegas, and they're coming just in time: Tablet sales are expected to explode in the next few years.
Forrester Research released on Tuesday (Jan. 4) a report projecting that one third of U.S. online users will own a tablet by 2015.
There are an estimated 10.3 million people using tablets in the U.S. right now, but those numbers are only expected to increase.
In fact, about 26.0 million people are projected to use one in 2011, and 50.7 million will be adopters in 2012. By 2015, a whopping 82.1 million U.S. adults are expected to be tablet users.
"Of those sales, the lion's share will be iPads, and despite many would-be competitors that will be released at CES, we see Apple commanding the vast majority of the tablet market through 2012," said Forrester analyst Sarah Rotman Epps in a statement.
Epps believes that the replacement rate of tablets will be closer to that of MP3 players or iPhones than to that of PCs.
"Although they are certainly used for productivity, tablets are proving themselves to be 'lifestyle devices' at home and at work, and as such we think consumers will upgrade to newer models more rapidly than they would a more utilitarian device like a PC," Epps said.
This means that Forrester Research thinks a significant number of first-generation iPad buyers will buy the iPad 2 when it comes out this year. Therefore, many first-gen iPads will end up entertaining the kids in the back of the car, Epps said.
As for other tablets – from Android tablets and Research In Motion's BlackBerry PlayBook to Microsoft's Windows-based tablets and those that run on HP's and Nokia's platforms – these will take a backseat to Apple this year.
But in a market this big, there's room for more than one player, Epps noted.
"By 2015, 82 million US consumers – one-third of US online consumers – will be using a tablet, and not all of them will be iPads," Epps said.
